The Markov-Switching Multifractal Musica Mundana Solar Flare Now-Cast

X-class —

chance of at least one X-class flare in the same window, read from the belief of the count-only filter — the one that made this site's forecast before it began reading the Sun's active regions, kept running beside it for this tile alone (sealed record v50) — shown for context, never scored on the ledger. That belief carries X-relevant information only through the rate: its M-class rate, thinned by one constant flare-level X fraction, reproduces this read-out's skill, and the calibrated paired difference between the two covers zero (sealed record v52).