The Markov-Switching Multifractal Musica Mundana Solar Flare Now-Cast

William Blake's The Ancient of Days: a white-bearded figure crouched inside a golden sun, reaching down into darkness with a pair of compasses (Europe a Prophecy, copy K, plate one; public domain). — William Blake, *The Ancient of Days* — *Europe a Prophecy*, copy K, plate one. Public domain.

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chance of at least one M-class solar flare in the next 24 hours

— · issued for —

X-class —

chance of at least one X-class flare in the same window, read from the same filter's belief (sealed record v50) — shown for context, never scored on the ledger. The belief carries X-relevant information only through the rate: the same ladder's M-class rate, thinned by one constant flare-level X fraction, reproduces this read-out's skill, and the calibrated paired difference between the two covers zero (sealed record v52).

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The running score

Live, this repository's own measurement, recomputed from the committed ledger every time this page is built.

Resolved days: 5
Verified M-class days: 0
Observed base rate: 0.000
Brier score: 0.037

Too few days for a skill score. A skill score divides by a reference Brier estimated from the same handful of days, so on a short board it measures which days happened to land in the sample rather than the forecast. This page prints no skill score — against climatology, against persistence, or against anything else — until the board reaches its minimum of thirty resolved days. The count, the hits, the base rate and the Brier above are the whole of what a board this short can honestly say.

See the full skill ledger

The forecast above needs JavaScript to read the current state. The same forecast and its running score are on the Scoreboard, and the method is explained on the Method page — both are fully readable without scripts.